Dylan Jovine | Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Be the Biggest Risk to Stocks in 2025 [R0Zwg8mC7sX]
Good morning, everyone! Dylan Jovine here from Behind the Markets, and happy Monday! It’s January 6th, the first full week of 2025, and I’m kicking things off with a crucial topic: the single biggest risk to stocks this year. If there’s one takeaway I want you to focus on, it’s the importance of the 10-year Treasury yield and its impact on the stock market. Stock prices and bond yields have an inverse relationship—a seesaw effect. When the 10-year Treasury yield rises, stocks tend to fall, and when the yield drops, stocks often rise. Over the past year, despite the Fed lowering rates by 100 basis points, the 10-year yield has climbed nearly the same amount, showing how much pressure the bond market is exerting. The magic number to watch is 4.5%. When the 10-year yield hits or exceeds this level, it starts acting like gravity on stocks. At 4.75%, the declines become even steeper. Since the 2020 low, stocks have surged 117%, but this has coincided with low yields. Now, as yields rise above 4.5%, the market is showing signs of strain. If the yield pushes toward 5% or higher, we could see a significant market pullback. Watching this key metric can help you navigate the market with greater confidence and avoid unnecessary risks. Stay focused, stay informed, and remember—knowledge is power. Have a great Monday, and I’ll see you tomorrow! ✅ SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHANNEL 👇🏼👇🏼 ✅ SIGN UP FOR DYLAN'S DIARY HERE 👇🏼👇🏼 ✅ VISIT OUR WEBSITE 👇🏼👇🏼