Broadcom [QHzlFEW7i6d]

Broadcom just posted record $22.2B revenue and 143% AI growth then the stock dropped 13%. Is this a warning or a buy-the-dip moment?

Today on The Byte-Size Brief, we put Broadcom, ticker AVGO, under the vanilla ninja microscope.

AVGO is trading around $370 24% off its 52-week high of $495. Q2 FY2026 results were staggering: $22.2B total revenue (+48% YoY), $10.8B in AI semiconductor revenue (+143% YoY), and $10.3B in free cash flow in a single quarter. Their AI order backlog hit $30B nearly 3x what they shipped. CEO Hock Tan says demand visibility now extends into 2028.

AVGO runs on two engines. Engine 1: custom AI ASICs (Application-Specific Integrated Circuits), where AVGO holds roughly 70% market share. Their Halipino chip, co-developed with OpenAI in just 9 months using AI-assisted design, targets AI inference specifically. Engine 2: enterprise software primarily VMware, acquired for $69B generating 93% gross margins and accounting for 32% of total revenue.

Bull case: Q3 AI revenue guidance of $6B implies over 200% YoY growth. Forward earnings trade at roughly 19x (vs. 60x trailing), changing the valuation picture entirely. VMware provides sticky, high-margin recurring revenue that funds aggressive R&D. A new share buyback program is in place. The AIXPU platform a $35B financing partnership with Apollo and Blackstone targets 20 gigawatts of AI compute capacity through 2028, positioning AVGO as full-stack AI infrastructure.

Bear case: Gross margins compressed 230 basis points to 77.1% in Q2, guided to 74% for Q3 custom ASICs carry structurally lower margins than software. High-margin AI networking chips (Tomahawk, Jericho) are expected to drop from 40% to 30% of the AI revenue mix. Apple, historically 15-20% of semiconductor revenues, is moving to insource its own WiFi and Bluetooth chips. VMware's forced subscription migration is generating real customer backlash. Customer concentration across Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic remains a key structural risk.

Is a 24% pullback on a company generating $10.3B in quarterly free cash flow with a $30B AI backlog a gift or is the market pricing in margin compression that bulls are ignoring?

Timestamps

00:00 Intro AVGO at $370, 24% off highs

01:10 Two-Engine Business Model Overview

02:19 Halipino Chip & Custom ASIC Explained

05:24 Why Pricing Power Is Limited on Custom Chips

06:13 Q2 FY2026: $22.2B Revenue, 143% AI Growth

07:19 $30B AI Backlog & 2028 Visibility

09:09 Gross Margin Compression Explained

10:19 VMware Software Engine: 93% Margins

11:11 VMware Subscription Backlash & Churn Risk

15:40 Why the Stock Dropped 13% After Earnings

17:34 Apple Chip Insourcing Risk

18:30 Valuation: 60x Trailing vs. 19x Forward

19:53 AIXPU Platform: $35B AI Infrastructure Financing

Today's 4-line summary:

- Record $22.2B revenue, $10.8B in AI chips (+143% YoY), and a $30B backlog in Q2 FY2026

- Two engines: 70% ASIC market share + VMware software at 93% gross margin

- la forza di una donna Gross margins compressing toward 74% as lower-margin hardware dominates escroquerie the revenue mix

- AIXPU platform with Apollo and Blackstone targets 20 GW of AI compute financing through 2028

Let's think about this together With AVGO trading 24% off its highs, does a 19x forward multiple on a $30B AI backlog make it undervalued or is margin compression the real story the market is telling you?

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This video is for informational purposes only. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.