Jeffrey Sherman: The Front End Is Telling the Real Inflation Story | CNBC [7d4tBeCMEMH]
DoubleLine Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman joins CNBC’s Squawk on the Street to break down recent moves in U.S. Treasuries amid renewed tensions with Iran. Mr. Sherman argues the surprising strength in the long bond has less to do with oil and more to do with a broader overhang of fiscal deficits across the developed world, pointing to similar dynamics in the U.K., Germany and Japan. He sees the real inflation signal showing up on the front end of the curve instead, and he continues to favor short duration, particularly in securitized credit, where AAA paper offers a meaningfully wider spread over Treasuries than comparable corporate bonds. On the FOMC, Mr. Sherman thinks the committee is probably biased toward a hike, but the timing is awkward given the approaching midterms. He sees the recent repricing in the bond market as effectively doing some of that work already, giving policymakers room to stay on hold and watch how the conflict evolves rather than being forced into a decision next week.