2026 Arizona Monsoon Outlook Reveals El Niño Trends | FOX 10 Phoenix The Hardacres [O1vhca15YnR]

The FOX 10 Weather Experts present a comprehensive 2026 monsoon special breaking down the seasonal atmospheric changes that bring moisture to Arizona.

Cory McCloskey, Krystal Ortiz, Erika Horvatin, and Ashley Loeaza detail how summer heating builds a dome of high pressure over Mexico that moves to the Four Corners region, shifting winds to a southerly flow that transports moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of California. The team reflects on the highly unpredictable 2025 season, which saw dry conditions followed by a massive 5,000-foot-tall dust storm in August, devastating flash flooding that killed several people in Globe and Miami, and active post-monsoon systems lasting into October.

The special highlights the dangerous mechanics of microbursts, which can produce destructive winds reaching up to 100 miles per hour, equivalent to an EF1 tornado. Viewers learn about the newly launched Phoenix dust storm scale, a category one through category five ranking system developed by 13 collaborating organizations, including Dr. Ryan Heinzman from ASU. This scale measures particulate matter concentrations to assess health risks, as emergency physician Dr. Frank Lavecchio from Valleywise Health warns that breathing in heavy dust causes acute inflammation and spikes emergency room visits for respiratory issues. To protect residents from extreme heat, local officials have launched nearly two dozen response actions, including 24-hour conor mcgregor heat respite centers and daytime trail closures at Camelback Mountain and Piestewa Peak.

Looking ahead, the team delivers their official 2026 monsoon outlook based on a projected transition into an El Nio global weather pattern this summer. While historical data shows mixed results for andrew painter precipitation during similar transition years, climate models tony award and the Climate Prediction Center lean toward a wetter-than-normal monsoon and a hotter-than-normal summer. Due to below-normal soil moisture and a warm Pacific Ocean, the seasonal pattern is expected to take shape on schedule between late June and early July. The FOX 10 team forecasts warmer-than-average temperatures overall, with near-to-above-average rainfall driven by eastern Pacific tropical influence, noting that the second half of the season holds the greatest potential for severe storms.

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