Kansas Windstorm and Significant Flooding, Pittsburgh Flooding, Southwest Heat and Fire Weather [a2j3574ZzIh]
Willow's Weather Briefing for Tuesday, 17 June 2025 TODAY: - Moderate (4/5) risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of Kansas (Wichita, Hutchinson, Garden City), primarily for a destructive wind threat. Large to giant hail is also possible throughout the risk area, and a few tornadoes is possible. The broader Slight (2/5) risk expands from Southeastern Wyoming into Kansas and back into Southern Iowa, primarily for damaging winds and large hail, some of which may be giant in Colorado. Storms will form in Northern Colorado/Southeastern Wyoming early in the day, around 11AM Mountain, and move to the southeast. These storms should impinge the risk area by 4PM Central/3PM Mountain. However, storms will fire in Kansas at around 5PM Central, before this complex arrives, signaling the significant hail threat. - Moderate (3/4) risks of excessive rainfall for Southwestern Pennsylvania/Adjacent States (Pittsburgh, State College, Wheeling WV), and portions of Kansas (Wichita, Salina). For Pennsylvania, near-record moisture will support extreme rainfall rates and 3-5 inches of rainfall is possible. In Kansas, 3-5 inches of rainfall is also possible on top of moist soils from yesterday's convection. These two risks are surrounded by Slight risks from Eastern Kentucky to much of Pennsylvania (Charleston WV, Lexington KY, Williamsport PA), and from Northern Oklahoma to Iowa/Illinois (Omaha, Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Tulsa). - Critical (2/3) fire weather risk for Eastern Arizona into Western New Mexico (Albuquerque, Las Cruces, Rio Rancho) - Heat is currently maximized over the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts, along with the Southern High Plains. Most places will reach temperatures over 100 degrees, but some portions of Southern California will exceed 110 degrees. Above average temperatures build in the Mid-Atlantic. - Below average temperatures continue across portions of the U.S. experiencing rainfall, such as the Northeast and Central Plains. Above average for areas experiencing heat outlooks. Generally around average elsewhere. TOMORROW: An Enhanced (3/5) risk of severe thunderstorms from Southern Michigan to Southeastern Missouri, primarily for damaging winds. Large hail and a few tornadoes are possible, especially with northern extent. THURSDAY: A Slight risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of New England to North Carolina. Risk is maximized closer to the surface low in New England, where all severe hazards are possible. Farther south, damaging winds will be the primary hazard. FRIDAY: Critical fire weather risks for Western Nevada and Eastern Nevada/Western Utah (Reno, St. George, Carson City) SATURDAY: Critical fire weather risks for Western Nevada and much of Utah/Four Corners Region (St. George, Grand Junction, Cedar City) SUNDAY: Critical fire weather risk for Northern Arizona to Western Colorado/Much of Utah (St. George, Flagstaff, Grand Junction) HEAT OUTLOOK: Midweek, temperatures will continue to rise in the Mid-Atlantic and the Inner West. Heat at or above 110 degrees is expected in Las Vegas and Phoenix, while the interior basin (such as Salt Lake City) will reach around 100 degrees. In the Mid-Atlantic, temperatures will be well into the 90s. By late week, heat will migrate to the Central/Southern Plains and Midwest, with most place reaching well into the 90s. By the end of the weekend into early next week, heat will again migrate eastward towards the Ohio Valley and East, with widespread temperatures well into the 90s. TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK: Midweek, a cold front will start to traverse the eastern U.S., bringing below average temperatures to much of the East by late week. Before then, a bout of above average temperatures will occur across the East Coast until Friday. Meanwhile, in the Inner West, widespread above average temperatures will overspread the area by late week, and traverse eastward due to an upper-level ridge. By the weekend, much above average temperatures across the Central to Northern Plains, as well as portions of the Midwest. Much below average temperatures will occur across much of the Northwest and Central Basin. By early next week, well above average temperatures will occur across the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Below average temperatures will also spread to the Central/Northern Plains. If you want specifics regarding your area, please refer to your local broadcast or National Weather Service meteorologists National Weather Service: Satellite: Drought Monitor (UPDATED EVERY THURSDAY): Surface Map, ERO, WSSI, HeatRisk: Severe Weather, Fire Outlooks: 6-10 Day Temperature/Precipitation Outlooks: Modelling: